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Argentine Presidential Elections, 2011
Overview On December 2005, Margarita Stolbizer started her first government in one of the biggest crisis in Argentina's history. While the drought from 2003 was majorly over, it's effects were still making an impact on the agricultural sector. The flames were also aided by the Peronist protectionist policies which at that moment aggravated the impact on the sector. At the moment of her inauguration, the commercial deficit was around 1,25% of the GDP. The economy slowed down with the lowest being 0,7% growth in 2005, and inflation reached 35% aided with the food shortages. Unemployment also peaked at 9%. One of Stolbizer's first actions was to declare a State of Emergency in the Agriculture Secretary. Due to the new centre-right credentials the UCR had, the Radical controlled Congress enacted a state reform law similar to Angeloz's in the late 80's. With an special focus on the agriculture sector, it also opened up customs and trade barriers that were intensified during Tabaré's government. Finally, in early 2007, the economy showed signs of improvement, with a growth rate of around 7% each year. The Syndicalist and Union movement was very combative with the new government, which was denounced as the return of Oligarchical control over Argentine politics. In the Syndical elections for 2006, the Socialist list won an overwhelming majority over the Peronists. This deepened the crisis of the PJ. In the 2007 Midterms, the UCR triumphed with with 40% of the votes. The divided PJ with the MODIN polled around 29% combined. Several third parties gained seats, the most being the conservative rightist UceDé. Through 2008, the Argentine economy was said to be almost in full recovery. The 2003-2006 crisis marked the definitive end of Argentina's economy being dominated by the agricultural and primary sector. From then, the services industry was 1st with industry quickly following behind. In order to improve her popularity, Stolbizer aided with the still existing Social-Democrat faction of the UCR pushed a bill to legalize same-sex marriage. With the almost full support of the UCR (1 Abstention from a Tucumán deputy), the bill passed through the lower chamber. The PJ's support was mixed, while the MODIN strongly opposed the legislation. The UceDé's support was also split between the conservatives and libertarians of the party. Finally the bill passed the senate with a 28-20 vote. For the 2009 Midterms the Justicialists made it a clear objective to reunite the party. In the May 2008 United Congress between the main PJ and the MODIN held in Mercedes, San Luis, the Northern fraction of the party dominated the Buenos Aires faction mainly by a new discourse on 'Fresh Politics' and electoral vigour; as indeed the MODIN held its seats compared to the ''Porteño ''section of the Justicialist Party. This new Peronist Unity was led by Alberto Rodríguez Saa, the 2005 MODIN candidate, and José Alperovich, his VP Candidate. iIn the 2009 Midterms the UCR once again triumphed with 41% of the votes. However the reunited PJ improved its perfomance gathering 33% of the electorate. Third also again was the UCeDé, with also an improvement from Anti-Communist voters abandoning the MODINists after their deal with the left-leaning Buenos Aires Peronists. Following the 2009 Midterms, Stolbizer's government continued its broadly centrist course of action. In 2010 two major legislations were pased; one which encouraged foreign investment in the country and the another which enacted a Tax Cut on the Argentine middle class and small and medium businesses, while raising them on the top brackets (With exonerations possible). Free Trade policies continued with the strenghtening of relationships with Chile and California. Constitutional Reform In 2010 the Argentine Constitution was modified, with the main focus being the re-election of the President. Instead of a single term of 6 years, the Constitution was reformed to include two terms of 4 years. Though the UCR intended also to abolish the Electoral College, opposition from the now Rural-Northener dominated PJ in the negotiations stopped these efforts. As the MODINists also mainated their North-Conservative base, they pressured the rest of the convention to add in an Anti-Communist pledge to the reformed Constitution. This Anti-Communism really began in the early 2000's and came to define Argentine Politics since it has rapidly shifted to the Right since 2001. It was mainly directed after Brazil and Peru after Argentina's defeat in the 1978-1980 War against Brazil. Candidates UCR Popular within the Radical Party, Margarita Stolbizer enjoyed token opposition through the UCR primaries. Elisa Carrió was back again, but her SocDem faction weakened to the fact that the sitting President was able to unite the two factions of her party into a broadly centrist platform. Partido Justicialista After the Justicialist Party achieved unity in 2009, work immediately began to search for a Presidential candidate in 2010. As the year ended, Alberto Rodríguez Saá, brother of the 2005 MODIN Presidential Candidate, seemed to be the frontrunner. However, as 2011 started, a new challenger appeared in the form of Néstor Kirchner, Governor of Santa Cruz from 1993 to 1999 and later Senator for the same province. With a grassroots oriented and populist progressive campaign, with a great use of youth movements and organizations, Kirchner began to build up momentum through the Primary campaign. The August 2011 Justicialist primaries ended in a upset, as Kirchner trumped Rodríguez Saá in the elections. Néstor triumphed in most provinces, with the exceptions of his rival's native San Luis and other northern states. Néstor Kirchner's progressive victory upset the conservative PJ establishment, but the results were clear. In the later convention, Kirchner picked left-leaning Buenos Aires deputy Carlos Álvarez to be his running mate. Other Parties The Union of the Democratic Centre (UceDé) decided to go for Ricardo López Murphy, leader of the libertarian leaning faction of the party. Federico Pinedo was choosen as his running mate to bind the two party factions together. Socialist Parties merged into the United Left (IU) ticket in order to challenge the growing Anti-Communist sentiment in Argentine politics. Alejandro Bodart of the New Left Movement was choosen as the Presidential Candidate, with Christian Castillo of the Worker's Party for the Vice-Presidential ticket. Campaign Néstor Kirchner continued his progressive rhetoric through the Presidential campaign, calling for higher taxes, new social progrems to fight poverty, and a general reform of the Argentina's economic and political system to make it 'fairer'. This was popular in some sectors, but upset the previously mentioned Conservative PJ base in the North. However, with the Unity Pact of 2009 signed, they were unable to form something akin to the MODIN again. Stolbizer took advantage this, and through her re-election campaign used tactics which could only be described as 'Red Scare' ones, targeting Kirchner's leftism. Her hope was to draw conservative Peronists and interior voters to her side, which was succesful. Largely, with the exception of her Anti-Communism, Stolbizer maintained her 2005 strategy and incumbency advantage. Some of her ads were notable for using images of poverty in Communist Brazil and Peru, to varying degrees of success. The choosing of Gerardo Morales, a Northern Governor, as her running mate also helped her make inroads with voters in that part of Argentina. Results Margarita Stolbizer won in a landslide, with over 570 Electoral Votes and 64% of the Popular Vote. Her admittedly largely fear-based campaign succeded in drawing voters away from Kirchner, which received 46 EV's and 27% of the PV, less than both the 2005 PJ and MODIN. Kirchner's loss helped the PJ establishment to expel the Progressives from the party, which soon created their own political space. Margarita Stolbizer's victory was even bigger than Juan Perón's one in 1951, in which he received 62% of the vote compared to 64%. The UceDé had its best perfomance yet in terms of the Popular Vote, receiving 7% of it and 6 Electoral Votes, all in its Buenos Aires-Capital base. Stolbizer was inaugurated for a second term on December 10, 2011. Four Main Parties Unión Civica Radical (Centrist, Anti-Communist) Margarita Stolbizer, Gerardo Morales Partido Justicialista (Peronist, Progressive) Néstor Kircher, Carlos Álvarez Unión del Centro Democrático (Libertarian Conservative) Ricardo L. Murphy, Federico Pinedo Izquierda Unida (Left, Socialist) Alejandro Bodart, Christian Castillo